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Premier League Title Chase Updated

When I last looked at the title race back in the beginning of the month I had Man United winning the title by a point over Liverpool and two points over Chelsea. Three games later, the title picture has changed a little.

1. Manchester United (74 pts, 6 games remaining)
Man Utd Fixtures: Tottenham H; Middlesbrough A; Man City H; Wigan A; Arsenal H; Hull A
Requirements: 13+ points to guarantee a title victory, or 12 and an improvement on current goal difference to beat Liverpool’s (United have +35 to Liverpool’s +38)

2. Liverpool (71 pts, 5 games remaining)
Liverpool Fixtures: Hull A; Newcastle H; West Ham A; West Brom A; Tottenham H
Requirements: Assuming that Liverpool win all their games, they require United to drop six points, or seven if Liverpool surrender their goal difference advantage.

3. Chelsea (68 pts, 5 games remaining)
Chelsea Fixtures: West Ham A; Fulham H; Arsenal A; Blackburn H; Sunderland A
Requirements: Assuming that Chelsea win all their games, they require United to drop nine points, or eight if Chelsea can manage a superior goal difference (currently they have +35, as do United.) They also require Liverpool to drop four points, or three if they can overtake them on goal difference (Liverpool are currently on +38)

I think the final table will show United wining by more than a point now. Basically United can afford to lose and tie one of their remaining six games to win the title, and that is assuming that Liverpool do not drop any more points.

Chelsea are out of the title race and are now focused on the Champions League. I now expect them to finish 3-5 points behind Manchester United when the season ends.